The UK is forecast to miss its Clean Power 2030 target for solar photovoltaic, offshore, and onshore energy by a combined 32 GW, according to new forecasts from Cornwall Insight, which indicates that solar energy will be the most affected. 4a6f5n

According to data from Cornwall Insight’s GB Benchmark Power Curve, a capacity shortfall is projected, despite the government revising its capacity targets downward in its ‘Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’, released in December.

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With a 16 GW deficit, solar photovoltaic will see the greatest underperformance, reaching 29 GW compared to the government's target of 45-47 GW. Despite this shortfall, Cornwall Insight’s forecast still represents a 70% increase from the 17 GW currently installed.

As for onshore wind, a policy boost has been seen; however, growth is still 10 GW below the 27-29 GW target, as planning issues continue to hinder progress of projects at the necessary scale.

Offshore wind, on the other hand, is the closest to meeting its target, just 6 GW short of the 43-50 GW goal. Despite cost inflation issues, the sector has received consistent through successive Contract for Difference allocation rounds.

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The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan included much-needed details on infrastructure and grid connections, as well as investment in flexible generation technologies and storage to balance intermittent generation, which could lead to an increase in renewable energy deployment.

However, with 2030 just five years away, the impact of these reforms may not materialize quickly enough to have a substantial effect on the 2030 capacity.

The growing energy demand from data centers, driven by the government’s push to expand artificial intelligence capabilities, underscores the urgency to invest in renewable energy. Without sufficient capacity, the UK grid may revert to fossil fuels, putting decarbonization goals at risk.

Another uncertainty stems from the lack of clarity surrounding the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly the potential move away from national wholesale prices. These reforms would require a comprehensive review of regulations, contracts, and systems, with significant commercial implications for developers. Without clear guidance, developers hesitate to invest, threatening the achievement of the UK’s clean energy goals.

While forecasts show that the 2030 target will not be met, the capacity expansion will still represent an impressive increase over current operational capacity. This progress will put the electricity sector on track to achieve net-zero emissions in the next decade, ahead of the broader net-zero target for the entire economy in 2050.

Cornwall Insight’s modelling director, Tom Musker, expects renewable energy to experience substantial growth in the next five years as the country strives to meet its clean energy ambitions.

Despite these figures, the gap between this growth and the government’s targets highlights the urgent need to address operational and investment barriers that are slowing renewable energy development.
Grid connection delays, supply chain constraints, and uncertainty surrounding electricity market reforms are creating a challenging environment for developers.

Musker warns that without swift and decisive action to resolve these issues, the UK risks falling far behind its clean energy ambitions.

“The government’s push for a fully decarbonized grid presents an opportunity to solidify the UK’s position as a global leader in renewable energy. However, while setting ambitious renewable energy targets is essential, some argue that rushing could have unintended consequences, diverting resources to short-term solutions at the expense of long-term energy security and sustainability.”

“Timely investment in infrastructure, clarity in market reforms, and for the execution of innovative projects are vital to unlocking the UK’s clean energy potential. This ensures we not only meet immediate clean energy goals but also stay on track for our broader net-zero commitments.”