The UK faces significant challenges in its transition to a low-carbon future, according to DNV's 2025 UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) report, that emphasizes the need for greater governmental for hydrogen production and infrastructure if the country is to meet its 2030 and 2050 climate goals. b3v4r

Hydrogen development: A key component for 2050 targets e1941

DNV forecasts that by 2030, the UK will produce 0.9 million tonnes of hydrogen per year, but only 25% of this will be low-carbon hydrogen. This shortfall represents a gap of 6GW compared to the government’s target for 2030. However, the report predicts that hydrogen production will significantly grow to 4.7 million tonnes per year by 2050, marking a crucial step toward decarbonization.

Frank Ketelaars, Energy Transition Director at DNV, stressed the importance of for the hydrogen market, stating that high production costs could make hydrogen uncompetitive without a clear business model or market mechanisms. Despite these hurdles, he remains optimistic, noting significant progress on the industrial side, with hydrogen and carbon capture technologies set to reduce emissions by 54%.

UK energy transition faces challenges in heating and transport 4r366q

In the short term, the challenge is to meet the Clean Power 2030 goal, which aims to decarbonize electricity generation through the expansion of renewable energy and the implementation of carbon capture technologies, although a partial dependence on gas is still expected.


Source: DNV

The report highlights the difficulty the UK will face in decarbonizing heating and transport. While there has been notable progress in renewable energy generation, home heating remains heavily reliant on natural gas, with over half of homes expected to still use gas by 2050. This challenge is compounded by high costs for heat pumps and insulation, which limit their adoption.

In the transport sector, DNV projects a gradual transition from petrol and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), with EV adoption showing signs of recovery. However, the transition will be slow, and the UK will need to address emissions from heavy transport and aviation by developing synthetic fuels and hydrogen technologies.

Urgent policy action required for net zero by 2050 5c2h6l

Despite progress, the analysis indicates that the United Kingdom is unlikely to reach its Net Zero target by 2050 without substantial changes, as in the medium term, by 2035, emissions are expected to be reduced by only 81%, leaving an 18% shortfall. The report highlights the urgency of scaling up renewable energy, electrifying demand in heating and transportation, and developing essential infrastructure such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen systems.

Finally, in the long term, the goal is to achieve Net Zero by 2050, but projections indicate that significant emissions will persist in sectors such as heating and aviation, underscoring the need for greater efforts and more ambitious policies to achieve full decarbonization.

Source: DNV

Hari Vamadevan, Executive Vice-President at DNV, underlined the importance of accelerating these efforts, stating that the UK’s energy transition is in a pivotal phase, where urgency must be turned into action. The next decade will be crucial for setting the country on a path toward a sustainable, decarbonized energy system.