The U.S. Energy Information istration (EIA) projects a monumental increase in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity from around 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) to nearly 30,000 b/d by 2024, pending the completion of announced capacity expansions. 6g263m

Key contributors include Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project, expected to begin operations this summer with a capacity of up to 10,000 b/d, and Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project, slated to produce approximately 15,000 b/d by year-end.

Investments in SAF have increased due to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and state programs and tax credits incentivizing use of the fuel. The White House also set a goal of meeting 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. According to the EIA, about 1.6 million b/d of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the United States in 2023, and they project U.S. jet fuel demand in 2050 to exceed 2.0 million b/d.

"Historically, production of Other Biofuels in the United States has been minimal. However, because renewable naphtha and renewable propane are by-products of a growing renewable diesel industry, production of Other Biofuels has been growing as well. U.S. production of Other Biofuels increased from just 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d in 2023," the EIA said.

The also added that SAF production has historically comprised a small portion of Other Biofuels production because of restricted production capacity. At the beginning of 2024, U.S. SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 b/d, with only two plants capable of producing SAF: World Energy’s plant in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables’ plant in Great Falls, Montana.

Looking ahead, the EIA forecasts a significant uptick in Other Biofuels production, projected to reach 51,000 b/d by 2025, fueled primarily by expanding SAF capacities and the continued growth of renewable diesel production. This trend reflects a broader shift towards sustainable energy solutions within the aviation industry, positioning the U.S. as a leader in SAF innovation and adoption.

As the demand for cleaner aviation fuels intensifies, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates continued momentum in SAF production, marking a transformative period in America’s energy landscape.