The U.S. solar industry added 8.6 gigawatts (GW) of new solar module manufacturing capacity in the first quarter of 2025, marking the third-largest quarterly increase on record. 60226g

This growth was driven by eight new or expanded factories in Texas, Ohio, and Arizona, according to the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q2 2025 report released today by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. In addition to this surge, U.S. solar cell production capacity doubled to 2 GW with the opening of a new factory in South Carolina.

The report also reveals that the U.S. solar industry installed 10.8 GW of new electricity-generating capacity in Q1, with solar and storage ing for 82% of all new capacity added to the grid.

Despite strong manufacturing and deployment growth ing American energy independence, the industry faces significant challenges. New tariffs and potential changes to federal tax credits threaten to create business uncertainty and jeopardize long-term growth.

“Solar and storage continue to dominate America’s energy economy, adding more new capacity to the grid than any technology using increasingly American-made equipment,” said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. “But our success is at risk. If Congress fails to fix the legislation ed by the House — which would make energy tax incentives unusable — lawmakers will trigger a dangerous energy shortage, raise electric bills, and halt America’s manufacturing boom. The Senate still has time to secure President Trump’s vision for American energy dominance.”

The report warns that economy-wide tariff uncertainty, new anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on solar cells and modules from Southeast Asia, and potential changes to federal incentives could severely hinder solar deployment and manufacturing, risking energy shortages, job losses, and factory closures.

“The 10.8 GW of solar capacity installed in Q1 2025 represents a significant portion of new U.S. electricity generation, highlighting solar’s growing dominance in the energy mix,” said Zoë Gaston, Principal Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “However, proposed changes to federal tax incentives, along with ongoing tariff concerns, could significantly slow growth and create energy supply challenges. It’s crucial to recognize solar’s critical role in America’s energy future.”

SEIA and Wood Mackenzie’s forecast, which s for current tariffs but not potential federal tax credit rollbacks, projects declining deployment nationwide. This could lead to lost investments in local communities, energy shortfalls, and higher electricity costs for consumers. While community solar forecasts remain flat, other segments face declines: residential solar deployment is projected to drop 14%, and utility-scale deployment 6% over five years. Additional tax credit rollbacks would exacerbate these impacts.

A separate SEIA analysis of the House-ed reconciliation legislation projects devastating consequences if the bill becomes law. It estimates a loss of 330,000 current and future jobs, the closure or halted opening of 331 factories, and a disappearance of $286 billion in local investments. The bill could also drive energy inflation, increasing consumers’ electricity bills by $51 billion nationwide.

If energy tax incentives are cut, SEIA projects a 173 terawatt-hour (TWh) drop in energy production, hampering the U.S.’s ability to meet demand and compete with China in powering emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.

The report highlights Texas as the leading state in solar capacity added during Q1 2025, with Florida suring California for second place. Among the top ten states for solar installations, eight were won by President Donald Trump in the 2024 election: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Arizona, Wisconsin, Idaho, and Pennsylvania.

Failure by Congress to adjust the energy tax incentives could severely impact jobs, investments, and factories in these key states, threatening the solar industry’s ongoing momentum.