However, despite these achievements, hopes of reaching the 2030 decarbonization targets received a knockout blow with the approval of the so-called Agricultural Decree-Law by the Council of Ministers last May 6.

Until Friday, May 10, the Italian media reported that the Quirinal rejected the decree on Agriculture after detecting three inconsistencies in the text, this decree implies a significant change in government policy regarding solar energy, especially highlighting the effective prohibition of the construction of photovoltaic systems on land intended for "agricultural" uses.

Although the full text of the Decree-Law was not published at that time and only its draft was known, the introduction of this prohibition was mentioned this week during the press conference given by Ministers sco Lollobrigida (Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Forestry) and Gilberto Pichetto Fratin (Environment and Energy Security).

In parallel to the announcement and without an official text, a tweet from President Giorgia Meloni also gave warning signals. "Stop photovoltaics without rules and more clean energy without consuming agricultural land," it read.

In any case, the measure was already sparking intense debate in the Italian solar industry, as some interpret it as a significant obstacle to the advancement of PV in the country. While, for others, it is either a definition problem in itself or does not represent an obstacle for future installations.

Industry analysis

But what is the root of the problem? In a letter addressed to the President and Minister of Italy, Italia Solare expresses its concern about energy policy in relation to photovoltaics and agriculture. In the document, the Association points out that the development of PV in synergy with agriculture is fundamental for the country's energy independence and economic competitiveness, and that hindering this synergy would have negative consequences, such as an increase in energy costs and loss of jobs.

Furthermore, it criticizes the lack of clarity and consistency in government policy and the discrepancy between different agencies regarding the impact of PV on agriculture and the landscape. Finally, it calls for a transparent public debate and a clear policy that promotes the development of PV in a sustainable and agriculturally friendly manner.

Ambiguity

A more detailed analysis is made by the law firm Bird&Bird. The firm argues that, in light of the draft that the industry has been able to learn about, there is ambiguity in the classification of ground-mounted PV plants, as the provision that may prohibit the deployment of solar plants in agricultural areas refers to specific works on existing installations rather than new installations, leading to uncertainty about its scope and application.

According to Pierpaolo Mastromarini, Head of Energy & Utility Italy at Bird&Bird, lack of clarity on whether the new restrictions will apply only to limited repowering/modernization works or also to new ground-mounted PV plants, which could affect the viability of future projects. In addition to adding uncertainty about the impact of the decree on projects in the permitting process at the time of publication and how these will be affected by the new legislation.

Those involved speak out

With tempers flaring in the industry, Review Energy wanted to know the opinions of the experts, beyond the documents already mentioned. For sco Emmolo, General Manager and Sales Director Italy and Greece at LONGi Solar, the Italian government's decision brings no advantage to anyone.

Emmolo points out that "it is incredible how the government is making three mistakes in one fell swoop: slowing down the energy transition, contributing to the increase in the price of electricity and once again creating an unfavorable environment for investors. I have been working in this field for more than 15 years and I could not believe I could be surprised again, but honestly I am. The question is, if this decision does not favor Italian citizens, and it clearly does not, who is profiting from this nonsensical regulation? Politicians are begged to answer."

Meanwhile, the opinion of Massimo Poli, Country Manager Italy at Smartenergy, is not far from the above. According to him, the recent agricultural decree is intended to show the government's willingness to put a limit on the volume of new renewable energy assets in operation by 2030, "at least to the extent of the current portfolio of projects in the authorization phase, which is 60-70 GW at most by 2030, nothing more."

Poli explains that, "the agricultural decree, which does not affect projects under authorization, but only new applications on agricultural land, serves to discourage investors from continuing to add new solar plants on top of the 60-70 GW already underway. Honestly, I just see some kind of major pre-election propaganda, as I believe this decree is not going to change anything at all between now and 2030. Anyway, we have a huge market ahead of us."

Marco Di Bartolomeo, Country Manager Italy and East European Key Director at TBEA, also expressed his opinion to this media with two interesting views. He noted that, "from the developers' point of view, new developments will focus on industrial land from now on and for the next few years."

However, from the investor, manufacturer or supplier point of view, Di Bartolomeo believes that "the Italian market will remain one of the top 3-4 in Europe in all segments, as there is a strong residential and C&I market and even all the commercial-scale projects that started the permitting process will have to be carried out. According to current forecasts, the total PV market in Italy will reach at least 6/7 GW of installation per year over the next 2/3 years."

Is the outlook a shadow for PV?

Let's add some more context. Italy's seventh Agricultural Census reveals a significant decrease in the total agricultural area (SAT), which includes pasture and corporate forests, from 22.3 million hectares in 1982 to just over 16.5 million in 2020. This represents a loss of almost 6 million hectares, with a portion going to increase forest area, which now exceeds 11 million hectares.

In addition, utilized agricultural area (UAA) fell from 15.8 million hectares in 1982 to just over 12.5 million hectares in 2020, with a partially halted loss since 2000. At the territorial level, the contraction was significant in mountains and hills and more limited in plains, a trend that probably continued to date.

Considering the above figures, Giorgio Inforzato, Regional Manager EU South at meteocontrol, explains to this media that it is worth asking a specific question: "why, given the government's desire to enable suitable areas for installation, boost innovative agrivoltaics on cultivated land, the possibility of building on rooftops, in areas close to freeways (solar-belt) or in the vicinity of airport and railway concessions, abandoned areas or quarries, we are sure that the government's move is totally wrong?".

And while the industry's view may be back and forth, Inforzato adds a different reading. "Maybe I am going against the tide, but considering that the decree will have to be applied, maybe with everyone's help (without criticizing only) a solution will be found, maybe after the European elections?", he says.

And although he is clear that "there is no photovoltaics without agriculture and there is no agriculture without renewables", he also adds that he does not believe that the Italian government, which has clearly signed and declared the country's decarbonization process with the confirmation of the PNIEC targets for 2030 of approximately another 38 GW, "is crazy enough to take away from the country this technology that is reality, investment certainty, as well as national GDP and economic return in of taxation, positioning itself as a leader in the Mediterranean as an international energy hub".