North America is losing its foothold in the global low-carbon hydrogen market. According to the North America Hydrogen Market Report – 2025, added to Research And Markets`s offerings, the region’s share of global low-carbon hydrogen capacity is projected to drop from 46% in 2025 to just 28% by 2030. 6f4w3

Policy shifts and 45V tax credit elimination slow green hydrogen growth 721z7

This decline is mainly due to shifting policies, especially under the renewed istration of former President Donald Trump in the United States. The recent age in the House of Representatives of a bill that eliminates the 45V tax credit—a key incentive for green hydrogen production—combined with high tariffs on steel, aluminum, and clean technology imports, is slowing renewable hydrogen development and driving up costs.

The bill, known as the "One Big, Beautiful Bill," ed by a narrow margin (215 votes in favor and 214 against) and now heads to the Senate for further debate. It proposes that hydrogen projects beginning construction after December 31, 2025 will no longer be eligible for the 45V tax credit, which currently provides up to $3 per kilogram of hydrogen produced through 2033. This change could severely impact the financial viability of new clean hydrogen projects in the U.S.

States and provinces keep momentum while global competition heats up 182422

In this context, the region is accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen—which uses natural gas with carbon capture—instead of green hydrogen from renewable sources. Canada has also seen slowed progress due to delays in key projects like the Global Hydrogen Initiative (GHI), while Mexico remains a marginal player with just 102 kilotons per annum (ktpa) of projected capacity.

Despite federal setbacks, some states and provinces such as California, New York, Alberta, and Quebec continue to actively clean hydrogen development through local and regional initiatives.

The transportation sector remains the primary end-use market for hydrogen, with growing interest in heavy-duty vehicle and industrial applications.

Industry experts warn that these political shifts could hamper North America’s competitiveness in a global market where Europe and Africa are rapidly gaining ground in low-carbon hydrogen capacity.