A new analysis by Ember reveals that Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria), have made significant improvements to their energy transition in recent years. The region covers roughly 20% of the EU population and territory, 15% of the EU’s GDP and 17% of the electricity demand, but still s for just 7% and 12% of EU wind and solar capacity, respectively. 2c6j6e

However, current renewables targets in most CEE countries are significantly below EU averages. This hesitant approach to wind and solar deployment, combined with continued high reliance on fossil fuels, is now posing a threat to the region’s energy security, increasing the cost of living and reducing the competitiveness of economies.

But CEE countries can deliver 200 GW of wind and solar by 2030. Ember says that the CEE region can deploy 130 GW of solar, 45 GW of onshore wind and 20 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, a six-fold increase from the current wind and solar capacity of 35 GW and almost twice what is likely with the current policy context. This would allow the CEE region to reach a 63% share of renewables in electricity generation by 2030, compared to just 25% in 2022, making the EU’s 2040 net zero power system achievable.

By pursuing more ambitious wind and solar deployment, Ember says the CEE region can lower average wholesale electricity prices by 29% compared to current policy ambition. The region can also become fully sufficient in of electricity production, exporting 23.1 TWh of electricity in 2030, compared to importing 7.3 TWh in 2022. If the region fails to take part in Europe’s energy transition, it will lose economic competitiveness and become reliant on electricity imports.

The analysis shows collaboration is necessary to unlock the region’s full potential and aligning national renewable strategies with EU’s policy opens up at least €136 billion in public funding.

Ember concludes that important milestones approach for CEE countries energy planning: including the process of updating National Energy and Climate Plans (NEs), due by mid-2023, and the required inclusion of REPowerEU chapters in Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRP) in Q2 2023. To access the full benefits of cheap renewable energy, CEE countries should take the opportunity to propose ambitious decarbonization pathways.